Cameroon's Justice Minister Amadou Ali says North will Support Biya, but not another Beti or Bami

In a recent,  wide-ranging and frank discussion with the Ambassador, Ali  said the foundation of Cameroon's stability is thedetente  between Biya's Beti/Bulu ethnic group, which predominates in  Cameroon's South Region, and the populations of Cameroon's  three Northern Regions, known as the Septentrion, which are  ethnically and culturally distinct from the rest of the  country.  The Septentrion will support Biya for as long as he  wants to be president, Ali predicted, but would not accept a  successor who was either another Beti/Bulu, or a member of  the economically powerful Bamileke ethnic group. 

SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S JUSTICE MINISTER SAYS NORTH WILL

SUPPORT BIYA, BUT NOT ANOTHER BETI OR BAMI

REF: A. YAOUNDE 225

     ¶B. YAOUNDE 237

     ¶C. YAOUNDE 246

Classified By: Political Officer Tad Brown for reasons 1.4 b and d.

¶1.  (C)  Summary.  The struggle for Cameroon's future,

including President Paul Biya's succession, should be viewed  through ethnic and regional lenses, according toAmadou Ali,  Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Justice.  In a recent,  wide-ranging and frank discussion with the Ambassador, Ali  said the foundation of Cameroon's stability is the detente  between Biya's Beti/Bulu ethnic group, which predominates in  Cameroon's South Region, and the populations of Cameroon's  three Northern Regions, known as the Septentrion, which are  ethnically and culturally distinct from the rest of the  country.  The Septentrion will support Biya for as long as he  wants to be president, Ali predicted, but would not accept a  successor who was either another Beti/Bulu, or a member of  the economically powerful Bamileke ethnic group.  Ali's  analysis and his willingness to speak so frankly about such a  sensitive topic reinforced our conviction that Cameroon's  political elite is increasingly focused on jockeying for the  post-Biya era.  End summary.

¶2.  (C)  Ambassador, accompanied by Poloff, called on Vice  Prime Minister and Minister for Justice Amadou Ali on  February 27 to discuss the recently-released Human Rights  Report (ref b).  Ali displayed his typical gregariousness,  but was even more frank and expansive than usual as he  discussed Cameroon's internal political struggles for more  than one hour.

Anti-Corruption: New

Strategy, More Arrests

----------------------

¶3.  (C)  Ali said his campaign to pursue corrupt government  officials continued, but that it was an increasingly low-key  effort to pressure officials to return stolen funds.  Ali  implied that he and Biya had decided to shift strategies in  theanticorruption fight.  Instead of the spectacular arrests  that characterized the initial years of the investigations  (dubbed "Operation Epervier" or "Sparrowhawk" by the  Cameroonian press), which Ali characterized as dangerously  destabilizing, Ali said the focus was now on asset recovery,  including through negotiations with corrupt officials,  pressuring them to return funds or face public prosecution.

¶4.  (C)  Ali promised more arrests in the coming days and  said he had ordered the construction of a new wing in the  Yaounde prison to house an influx of prominent former  government officials.  Unlike in previous meetings, Ali did  not complain that the U.S. and other countries were not  helping the GRC.  Instead, Ali said that the GRC has been  focusing on recovering assets present in Cameroon.  Ali  welcomed the Ambassador's recommendation that the GRCseek to  participate in the World Bank's Stolen Asset Recovery (StAR)  Initiative and admitted that the GRC's earlier efforts to  outsource asset recovery to hired guns had proven costly in  terms of time and money, with no results.

All Politics is Regional

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¶5.  (C)  Ali held forth at length about Cameroon's political  struggles, dismissing the formal opposition and focusing  instead on Cameroon's ethnic and regional groupings.  Ali  derided John Fru Ndi, the leader of the leading opposition  party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), saying that Fru Ndi  was corrupt (and had pocketed hundreds of thousands of  dollars that Cote d'Ivoire President Laurent Gbagbo had given  the SDF) and power-hungry.  Instead, Ali argued, the real  opposition to the GRC has always come from the  "grasslanders," the ethnic Bamilekes in the West Region and  the Anglophone communities in the Northwest and Southwest  Regions.  Ali said Cameroon's other ethnic groups bore a  pathological distrust of Bamilekes (who are sometimes  construed as co-conspirators with Anglophones, the so-called  Anglo-Bamis) because they were aggressive in extending their  commercial dominance of Cameroon.  According to Ali, the  Bamilekes had taken over Douala and were conspiring to extend  their communities throughout Cameron, including by sending  their women to give birth in far flung regions.  Ali argued  it was no coincidence that the rioting in February 2008 was  most severe in areas with large Bamileke populations.

Balancing Power:

Bamis, Betis and Northerners

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YAOUNDE 00000256  002 OF 002

¶6.  (C)  Ali said Cameroon's three Northern regions, which  are ethnically and culturally distinct from the rest of  Cameroon, would continue to support Biya for as long as he  wants to remain president, but that the next president of  Cameroon would not come from Biya's own Beti/Bulu ethnic  grouping, an assertion Ali said he made publicly in a 2003  speech.  Asked what the Septentrion would do if Biya  nominated a fellow Beti to succeed him, Ali asserted that  Biya, knowing it would be unacceptable to the rest of  Cameroon, would never make such a decision.  Even if Biya's own tribesmen sought to assert themselves, Ali said the Betis  were too few to take on the Northerners, much less the rest  of Cameroon.  Ali said Bamilekes had approach leading  Northern elites to seek an alliance between their respective  regions, but that Northerners (and other ethnic groups) were  so suspicious of Bamileke intentions and afraid of their  economic power, that they would never conspire to support  Bamileke political power.

Praise for the BIR,

But Also Anxiousness

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¶7. (C)  Ali praised the Rapid Intervention Battalions (BIR)  that have been tasked with securing the recently-acquired  Bakassi Peninsula and Cameroon's maritime domain, but  expressed concern that the regular military was growing  increasingly bitter in light of the BIR's success.  Ali was  unsparing in his criticism of Minister of Defense Remy Ze Meka, saying he expected Biya to have fired him long ago, but  certainly in the coming cabinet shuffle.  Ali said that when  he was Minister of Defense (from 1997-2001), Avi Sivan, the  Israeli national who oversees the BIR, reported directly to  him.  (Note.  Colonel (Retired) Abraham ("Avi") Sivan is a  dual citizen of Israel and Cameroon (with valid passports  from both).  Sivan is acting in a private capacity after  having retired as the last serving Defense Attach from  Israel.  End note.)  When Ze Meka succeeded Ali at the head  of Defense, Sivan obtained and provided to Biyaevidence that  Ze Meka was embezzling BIR funds, leading Biya to put the BIR  under his direct supervision.  Ali said the generals were  irredeemably corrupt, but doubted that Biya would take steps  to remove them.  Nevertheless, Ali analyzed Cameroon as a  low-risk country for a coup, saying the armed forces were  sufficiently fractured and controlled by the Presidency (to  the point where no troops can move without Biya's written  assent) to render an uprising implausible.

Comment: Transition:

The Only Game in Town

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¶8.  (C)  Ali's outspokenness about Cameroon's internal  political factions reinforces our growing impression that  Biya's succession is, at the same time, the only taboo  subject in public discussion and the only important subject  in private discussion.  Ali's claims that Cameroonians fear  Bamileke political power (or Anglo-Bami power, as it is  sometimes cast) too deeply to ever support a Bamileke should  be taken with a grain of salt.  Although Fru Ndi is no longer  perceived as a serious political contender (ref a), most  observers believe Fru Ndi--an Anglophone--won the popular  vote in 1992.  But most of Cameroon's ethnic elites likely  view politics through the same regional/ethnic lens as Ali,  and steadily rising socio-economic frustration among the  general population offers a dangerous opportunity to those  who would exploit ethnic rivalries to serve their own  political agendas.

¶9.  (C)  Ali's claim that the GRC has shifted its  anti-corruption focus to track stolen assets within Cameroon  jibes with what the head of Cameroon's financial intelligence  unit told us separately (ref c).  While Ali and Biya's focus  on asset recovery is certainly congruent with Cameroonian public opinion, we are concerned that Ali's willingness to  prioritize asset recovery ahead of judicial remedies might  lead to kleptocrats negotiating their way out of  accountability for their crimes.

GARVEY

Source: Wikileaks Cameroon